Are India and Pakistan on the path to war?

Tensions between India and Pakistan have risen lately. This increase is raising fears of a larger conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. A fatal terrorist attack in Indian-held Kashmir triggered the crisis. This led to retaliatory actions and heightened military alertness on both sides.

The Catalyst: Pahalgam Attack

A terrorist attack struck the Baisaran Valley in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025. It killed 26 people, mainly Hindu travelers. The attack was claimed by the Resistance Front, a splinter of Pakistan's Lashkar-e-Taiba group. India accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism. Pakistan denied this claim and called for an impartial investigation. ​

Diplomatic Fallout

India has undertaken a number of diplomatic steps in response to the attack:

Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty means that the two nations will stop sharing water as agreed.

Eviction of Pakistani diplomats and withdrawal of its own envoys from Pakistan.

Revocation of Pakistani visas and shutdown of border points, including the Wagah border. 

Pakistan retaliated with similar moves, such as shutting its airspace for Indian flights and suspension of trade ties. 

Military Posturing

Both countries have increased military operations along the Line of Control (LoC)

India is testing missiles and has started "Exercise Aakraman." This exercise involves the Air Force and Navy to check their readiness.

Pakistan has been conducting military exercises and has given threats about any aggression.

Small-arms fire has exchanged along the Kashmir border for several nights in a row.

International Concerns

The global community has shown alarm at the rising tensions:

The United States has called on both nations to find a "responsible solution" and has kept in touch with both governments.

Analysts warn that miscalculations could lead to a larger conflict. This could have disastrous effects because both countries have nuclear weapons.

Conclusion

India and Pakistan have avoided full-scale war despite many conflicts. However, the current situation is very tense. The mix of failed diplomacy, gunboat tactics, and national pride can lead to accidents and disasters. India and Pakistan must interact, along with Pakistan's ties to other nations. This can help lower tensions and prevent a future disaster.

• South Asia Geopolitics
• Kashmir Terror Attack 2025
• India Pakistan War Tensions
• India Pakistan Conflict 2025